The Simulation Model of Enterprise Behavior Taking into Account Sensitivity to Crisis Macroeconomic Processes
Rayevnyeva O. V., Su Rui

Rayevnyeva, Olena V., and Su, Rui. (2024) “The Simulation Model of Enterprise Behavior Taking into Account Sensitivity to Crisis Macroeconomic Processes.” The Problems of Economy 3:300–307.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2024-3-300-307

Section: Mathematical methods and models in economy

UDC 330.3+330.16+ 519.876.5

Abstract:
The current conditions of the global economy are characterized by increased instability of political, economic and social processes. Ensuring the stable development of the enterprise increasingly depends not only on its internal processes, but also on the general economic situation in the world, country, and industry. Depending on the structure of the economy, the level of integration into the global economy and the phase of the economic cycle, different types of economic activity react differently to crisis processes. Therefore, the specific affiliation of the enterprise in modeling its development is an important factor. The aim of the article is to build a general structure of the simulation model of economic behavior of enterprise, taking into account the sensitivity of the type of its economic activity to crisis processes. The analysis of scientific achievements has shown that for simulation modeling of enterprise behavior the most expedient is the application of the conception of system dynamics, allowing to represent the behavior of enterprise in the form of a system of material flows and to analyze cause-and-effect relationships and feedback outlines. The publication provides a simulation model of enterprise behavior, which takes into account the sensitivity of its type of economic activity to crisis processes. The model consists of four blocks: a model for the formation of scenario conditions, a model of economic behavior of an enterprise, a model for assessing the economic behavior of an enterprise, and a model for decision-making. It has been suggested that highly sensitive types are more exposed to risks and the consequences of risks are greater. The coefficient of sensitivity influence for the aggregated economic activities of Ukraine and the PRC has been calculated. It is shown that there are significant differences in the response of different types of economic activity to crisis processes between the countries. It is proposed to use surveys on business expectations and scenarios of macroeconomic forecasts to assess the risks of enterprises’ activities. The application of the scenario approach allows to verify the expediency, efficiency and effectiveness of management under different conditions and formulate recommendations for adjusting tactical and strategic decisions.

Keywords: economic behavior of enterprise, types of economic activity, simulation modeling, risks, impact of sensitivity, crisis processes.

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Rayevnyeva Olena V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkіv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: olena.raev@gmail.com
Su Rui – Postgraduate Student, Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkіv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: surui0929@gmail.com

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