Macroeconomic Analysis of the Efficiency of Regulation of the Ukrainian Economy: The Retrospective and the Present Financial-Economic Situation
Semencha I. Y., Kovalov M. S.

Semencha, Ilona Ye., and Kovalov, Mykhailo S. (2022) “Macroeconomic Analysis of the Efficiency of Regulation of the Ukrainian Economy: The Retrospective and the Present Financial-Economic Situation.” The Problems of Economy 2:66–75.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2022-2-66-75

Section: Economics and national economy management

UDC 338.24

Abstract:
With the beginning of Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s economy suffered shock influences, which on the part of the main public administration bodies caused an urgent need to respond promptly to the sharp changes and dynamics of events that have since unfolded. In addition, it was necessary to understand why and for what reasons the financial-economic system of Ukraine reacted in the way it behaved. Thus, the presented study is aimed at defining and assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of the previous systemic policy along with analyzing the operational actions of the National Bank of Ukraine as the main financial-economic regulator in the conditions of belligerency with regard to the country’s economy. Such an analysis provides an opportunity to further adjust the tactics of managing the financial-economic processes, taking into account the identified shortcomings in the implementation of decisions of previous periods. The research uses a comprehensive approach to macroeconomic analysis, methods of structural analysis and analysis of the dynamics of financial-economic indicators in retrospection. The research is built in two stages. At the first stage, with the help of retrospective financial-economic analysis methods, an assessment of the efficiency of the implementation of the defined Strategy for the development of financial markets in Ukraine for the period from 2016 to 2021 was carried out. At the second stage of the research, the actions of the Central bank were recorded, which led to the stabilization of the macroeconomic crisis in the country, the main directions of operational regulation during martial law in Ukraine were determined, their efficiency was assessed. A retrospective analysis of the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine in 2016-2022 showed that during this period the following important results were achieved in ensuring both financial and price stability, also the stability of the monetary unit: the monetary regime was used quite successfully in conducting inflation targeting, the standards of commercial banks were increased, a program for the accumulation of international reserves was carried out, and the exchange rate was regulated in order to ensure its growing. The assessment of the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine during the period of martial law after February 24, 2022 showed that the following measures of operational regulation were carried out: a number of external and internal incoming and outgoing financial barriers were applied, the accounting rate was regulated, special measures were constantly taken to ensure the financial-economic reserves of the financial system of Ukraine, new mechanisms of financial levers for the credit situation were developed. Further on, it would be advisable to consider the efficiency of regulating the financial-economic situation in a more distant period in order to be able to assess the correctness and fallacy of the decisions taken and adjust the regulator’s actions to maintain a stable state of the economy and further gradually exit from the crisis status. This analysis allows society to apprehend the complexity, consistency of actions of the central economic regulatory bodies, to understand the consequences and expediency of such actions. The presented research is original and comprehensive, touching on all macroeconomic aspects of the activities of the main financial regulator of Ukraine, its influence on the financial-economic situation of the country.

Keywords: financial-economic analysis, Central bank, martial law, economic decisions, assessment of actions, regulatory policy, macroeconomic indicators, banking system.

Fig.: 6. Tabl.: 1. Bibl.: 21.

Semencha Ilona Ye. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University (72 Nauky Ave., Dnіpro, 49010, Ukraine)
Email: semilon@ua.fm
Kovalov Mykhailo S. – Student, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University (72 Nauky Ave., Dnіpro, 49010, Ukraine)
Email: miglklev@gmail.com

List of references in article

Mishchenko, V. I. “Monetarne rehuliuvannia ekonomiky v umovakh finansovoi nestabilnosti“ [Monetary Regulation of the Economy in Conditions of Financial Instability]. Suchasna sotsialno-ekonomichna dynamika: realii ta perspektyvy dlia Ukrainy. Kyiv: TOV «Paperovyi zmii-OPT», 2021. 201-207.
Didenko, S. “V umovakh voiennoho stanu: funktsionuvannia finansovoho sektoru syohodni“ [Under Martial Law: The Functioning of the Financial Sector Today]. UA News. 2022. https://ua.news/ua/v-uslovyyah-voennogo-polozhenyya-funktsyonyrovanye-fynansovogo-sektora-segodnya/
Petryk, O. “Yak natsionalnyi bank dopomahaie zdobuvaty peremohu“ [How a National Bank Helps to Win]. Voks Ukraina. 2022. https://voxukraine.org/yak-natsionalnyj-bank-dopomagaye-zdobuvaty-peremogu/
Bandura, O. V. “Systemni ekonomichni kryzy ta rol makrorehuliatoriv v yikh podolanni“ [Systemic Economic Crises and the Role of Macro-regulators in Overcoming Them]. Polityka Natsionalnoho Banku Ukrainy shchodo podolannia finansovo-ekonomichnoi kryzy i formuvannia monetarnykh peredumov rozvytku ekonomiky. Kyiv: KNEU, 2015. 143-163.
Dubrovskyi, V. “Piat zahroz dlia ukrainskoi ekonomiky“ [Five Threats to the Ukrainian Economy]. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/30488065.html
Zhykhor, O. B., and Maistro, S. V. “Prychyny ta naslidky hlobalnoi finansovo-ekonomichnoi kryzy“ [Causes and Consequences of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis]. In Problemy rozvytku finansovo-kredytnoi systemy Ukrainy, 153-164. Kyiv: UBS NBU, 2014.
Marynchak, L. R., and Masyk, I. S. “Osoblyvosti funktsionuvannia bankivskykh ustanov v Ukraini v period pandemii“ [Peculiarities of the Functioning of Banking Institutions in Ukraine during the Pandemic]. Naukovyi visnyk Ivano-Frankivskoho natsionalnoho tekhnichnoho universytetu nafty i hazu. Seriia : Ekonomika ta upravlinnia v naftovii i hazovii promyslovosti, no. 1 (2020): 174-183.
Zaverbnyi, A. S., and Sokulskyi, N. R. “Pandemiia yak katalizator tsyfrovizatsii bankivskoi systemy v Ukraini“ [The Pandemic as a Catalyst for Digitalization of the Banking System in Ukraine]. http://www.investplan.com.ua/?op=1&z=7298&i=0
“Infliatsiinyi zvit, zhovten 2021 roku“ [Inflation Report, October 2021]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/inflyatsiyniy-zvit-jovten-2021-roku
“Ekonomichna statystyka. Tsiny“ [Economic Statistics. Prices]. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
“Zvit pro stres-testuvannia bankiv u 2021 rotsi“ [Report on Stress Testing of Banks in 2021]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/zvit-schodo-stres-testuvannya-bankiv-u-2021-rotsi
“Dynamika mizhnarodnykh rezerviv“ [Dynamics of International Reserves]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/international-reserves-allinfo/dynamics
“Stratehiia valiutnykh interventsii Natsionalnoho banku Ukrainy“ [Currency Intervention Strategy of the National Bank of Ukraine]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/files/DkTLQeGlKLsHNmQ
“Valiutni interventsii NBU“ [Currency Interventions of the NBU]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/currency-interventions
“Ofitsiinyi kurs hryvni shchodo inozemnykh valiut“ [The Official Exchange Rate of the Hryvnia Against Foreign Currencies]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/exchangerates
“Pro robotu bankivskoi systemy ta valiutnoho rynku z 24 liutoho 2022 roku v umovakh voiennoho stanu po vsii terytorii Ukrainy“ [On the Operation of the Banking System and the Foreign Exchange Market from February 24, 2022 in the Conditions of Martial Law Throughout the Territory of Ukraine]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/pro-robotu-bankivskoyi-sistemi-ta-valyutnogo-rinku-z-24-lyutogo-2022-roku-za-umovi-voyennogo-stanu-po-vsiy-teritoriyi-ukrayini
“Osnovni zasady hroshovo-kredytnoi polityky na period voiennoho stanu“ [Basic Principles of Monetary Policy During Martial Law]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/files/hJTwdIrBPNWeMzk
“Komentar Natsionalnoho banku shchodo rivnia infliatsii u travni 2022 roku“ [The National Bank's Comment on the Inflation Rate in May 2022]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/komentar-natsionalnogo-banku-schodo-rivnya-inflyatsiyi-u-travni-2022-roku
“Natsionalnyi bank 25 liutoho 2022 roku nadav refinansuvannia v obsiazi 51,5 mlrd hrn dlia pidtrymky likvidnosti bankivskoi systemy“ [On February 25, 2022, the National Bank Provided Refinancing in the Amount of UAH 51.5 Billion to Support the Liquidity of the Banking System]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-25-lyutogo-2022-roku-nadav-refinansuvannya-v-obsyazi-515-mlrd-grn-dlya-pidtrimki-likvidnosti-bankivskoyi-sistemi
“Pro vnesennia zminy do rishennia Pravlinnia Natsionalnoho banku Ukrainy vid 23 lystopada 2017 roku № 752-rsh“ [On Amending the Decision of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine Dated November 23, 2017 no. 752-rsh]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/law/01022022_44-rsh.pdf?v=4
“Balansovi zvity bankiv“ [Bank Balance Sheets]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/supervision-statist/data-supervision