Multilevel Structural Models of Scenarios for Development of Entities in the Agricultural Sector of the International Trade Market under Risk
Shapran E. M., Serhiienko O. A., Sosnov I. I.

Shapran, Evgeniy M., Serhiienko, Olena A., and Sosnov, Igor I. (2019) “Multilevel Structural Models of Scenarios for Development of Entities in the Agricultural Sector of the International Trade Market under Risk.” The Problems of Economy 4:293–305.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2019-4-293-305

Section: Mathematical methods and models in economy

UDC 336.77:338.432

Abstract:
The study deals with solving a set of tasks aimed at improving management of financial and credit mechanisms, and lending processes for business entities in the agricultural sector by creating effective tools to support assessment, analysis, planning and managerial decision making with the use of modern economic and mathematical methods. The proposed multilevel structural models of scenarios for development of entities in the agricultural sector of the international trade market under risk are presented as directions for enhancing financial security to improve lending to business entities in the agricultural sector. For the development and implementation of scenarios for managing creditworthiness of business entities under internal and external risks, the paper presents an algorithm for making managerial decisions to ensure efficiency and effectiveness and achieve a synergistic effect at all levels of management. The developed tools for forecasting entities in the agrarian market will help to reveal the consequences of the influence of factors forming organizational and managerial potential using the method of “future scenarios” in the form of a cube of situations. Structural three-level models of scenarios for the development of credit activities of business entities under risk in the analytical and graphical aspects are proposed. The elaborated models take into account the totality of interconnected processes to increase the level of creditworthiness in the area of improving the credit policy. A set of management measures depending on the variant of the credit management strategy is given as a systematized list of standard financial decisions. Methodological developments and recommendations for modeling scenarios for development of entities in the agricultural sector of the international trade market under risks can be considered as directions for increasing the level of financial security of agricultural enterprises.

Keywords: structural model, lending, agricultural sector, risk, development scenarios, forecasting, fuzzy logic, integral indicator.

Fig.: 7. Tabl.: 9. Formulae: 2. Bibl.: 22.

Shapran Evgeniy M. – Doctor of Sciences (Engineering), Professor, Department of Commercial, Trade and Entrepreneurship, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: evgen.shapran1948@gmail.com
Serhiienko Olena A. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship, Trade and Logistics, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: Elena.Sergienko@khpi.edu.ua
Sosnov Igor I. – Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Business, Trade and Products Expertise, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: igor.i.sosnov@gmail.com

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