Heuristic Evaluation of Sufficiency of the Gas Reserves Accumulated in the European Storage Facilities for the Period of Autumn-Winter 2019/2020.
Kikot O. Y.

Kikot, Oleksandr Yu. (2019) “Heuristic Evaluation of Sufficiency of the Gas Reserves Accumulated in the European Storage Facilities for the Period of Autumn-Winter 2019/2020..” The Problems of Economy 4:21–32.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2019-4-21-32

Section: World economy and international relations

UDC 339.13+ 665.72

Abstract:
The research objective is to evaluate sufficiency of the gas reserves accumulated in the European storage facilities for the period of autumn-winter 2019/2020. The research found that the capacity of the European storage facilities and the accumulated gas reserves they held as of 31.10.2019 are sufficient to ensure uninterrupted supply of gas to the European consumers during the period of autumn-winter 2019/2020, even if long-term force majeure circumstances occur. This finding is supported by the observations regarding: the behavior of the major energy companies on the gas market; analysis of three scenarios of the European gas market developments (average, worst and extremely negative seasons) based on the historic data; achieving a balance of the consumption and supply of gas on the European market; achieving a balance of the consumption and supply of gas on the Ukrainian market. The research results help better understand the role of the European storage facilities in the European gas market and identify the role of the Ukrainian gas storage facilities and natural gas transmission system in providing Europe with gas. They also allow evaluating capabilities of the European and Ukrainian gas storage facilities to balance seasonal fluctuations in the consumption and supply of gas on the European market and to hold sufficient volume of the insurance reserves in case the long-term force majeure circumstances occur. This paper adds important information to the existing analytical reports that study the negotiation positions and the development of the negotiations between Gazprom and Naftogaz regarding conditions of the gas transit through Ukraine to Europe.

Keywords: gas, gas reserves, sufficiency of gas reserves, gas storage facilities, European gas market, elements of European gas market, natural gas transmission system of Ukraine, period of autumn-winter 2019/2020.

Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 10. Bibl.: 19.

Kikot Oleksandr Yu. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Lecturer, Department of Finance, Banking, Insurance and Marketing, College of Technologies of Dniprovsk State Technical University (2a Konstytutsii Ave., Kamianske, 51909, Ukraine)
Email: kikot-1980@ukr.net

List of references in article

“The Trilateral Gas Talks. What Would an Interruption of Russian Gas Exports via Ukraine Mean for EU Consumers?“ Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI). Report. December, 2019. https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/en/energy/natural-gas/
“Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets / Market Observatory for Energy“. DG Energy Vol. 12 (issue 2). 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/market-analysis
“Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets / Market Observatory for Energy“. DG Energy Vol. 12 (issue 1). 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/market-analysis
“Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets / Market Observatory for Energy“. DG Energy Vol. 11 (issue 4). 2018. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/market-analysis
“Russian Gas Transit through Ukraine after 2019: the Options“. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. November, 2018. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/russian-gas-transit-ukraine-2019options/?v=3943d8795e03
“Russian Gas Transit through Ukraine after Nord Stream 2: Scenario Analysis“. Ukrainian Centre for European Policy. 2018. https://www.kas.de/documents/270026/0/Russian+gas+transit+through+Ukraine+after+NS2.+Scenario+Analysis.pdf
Holz, F. “Modeling the European Natural Gas Market Static and Dynamic Perspectives of an Oligopolistic Market“. Dissertation. Berlin. 2009. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Modeling-the-European-Natural-Gas-Market-%7C-Static-Holz/e6df633754ce9103b1f9355c9a1b83173387e4f4
Deane, J. P., Ciarain, M. O., and Gallachoir, B. P. O. “An integrated gas and electricity model of the EU energy system to examine supply interruptions“. Applied Energy, no. 193 (2017): 479-490.
Gunther, M., and Nissen, V. “Gas Flows and Gas Prices in Europe: What is the Impact of Nord Stream“. ENERDAY 2019 - 13th International Conference on Energy Economics and Technology. https://tu-dresden.de/bu/wirtschaft/bwl/ee2/ressourcen/dateien/enerday-2019/Paper-Guenther.pdf?lang=en
“The future of gas in Europe. Review of recent studies on the future of gas“. Research report / CEPS. August 2019. https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/RR2019-03_Future-of-gas-in-Europe.pdf
“An Overview of LNG Import Terminals in Europe / LNG IN EUROPE 2018“. King and Spalding. 2018. https://www.kslaw.com/attachments/000/006/010/original/LNG_in_Europe_2018_-_An_Overview_of_LNG_Import_Terminals_in_Europe.pdf?1530031152
“Energy database“. Eurostat, archive, 2017-2019. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data/database
“Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory“. AGSI+, archive, 2014-2019. https://agsi.gie.eu/#/
“Country Analysis Brief: Russia“. US Energy information administration, archive, 2017. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Russia/russia.pdf
“Background Reference: Norway“. US Energy information administration, archive, 2019. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Norway/pdf/norway_bkgd.pdf
“Background Reference: Algeria“. US Energy information administration, archive, 2019. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Algeria/Algeria_background.pdf
“Country Analysis Brief: Libya“. US Energy information administration, archive, 2015. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Libya/libya.pdf
“Ekonomichna statystyka. Enerhetyka“ [Economic Statistics. Energy]. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, 2019. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
“Analitychni zvity z hazovoho rynku“ [Analytical Reports on the Gas Market]. Kasatka media, 2017-2019. https://kosatka.media/uk/category/gaz/analytics